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Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes, by Blake C. Clayton
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Stock market booms are cause for celebration. But when oil prices soar because supplies are failing to keep up with demand, the response is nearly always apocalyptic. Predictions of the end of oil can create anxiety on Wall Street and in Washington, stoking fears that production has hit a ceiling and prices will rise in perpetuity. Yet these dire visions have always proven wrong.
Market Madness is the story of four waves of American anxiety over the last 100 years about a looming end to oil reserves. Their sweeping pattern-as large price increases lead to widespread shortage fears that eventually dissipate when oil production rises again and prices moderate-has defined the wild price swings in the oil market down to the present day.
Blake Clayton, a Wall Street stock analyst and adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, makes the case for the need for better information, communication and transparency. While these measures will not eliminate volatility and unpredictability completely, they would mitigate unnecessary price spikes and improve both investor and government decision-making.
Market Madness is the first study to employ Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller's "new era economics" beyond the markets to which he famously applied it-the 1990s dot-com equity market and the mid-2000s housing market-in order to better understand the dynamics of speculative bubbles and irrationality in the commodities markets. In so doing, it breaks new ground in illuminating how mass beliefs about the future of a vital asset like oil take shape and what the future of energy may hold.
- Sales Rank: #824047 in eBooks
- Published on: 2015-01-02
- Released on: 2015-01-02
- Format: Kindle eBook
About the Author
Blake Clayton is a stock analyst at Citigroup in New York, where he covers oil and gas companies and master limited partnerships. Prior to joining Citigroup, Dr. Clayton was a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he currently serves as an adjunct fellow on energy. Dr. Clayton received a doctorate from Oxford University. The recipient of the University of Chicago Endowed Fellowship, he holds dual master's degrees from the University of Chicago and Cambridge University.
Most helpful customer reviews
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
This is an important book for anyone interested in financial ...
By John J
This is an important book for anyone interested in financial markets, the future price of petrol, or the current US energy production renaissance. Dr. Clayton is a very rare combination of academic and practitioner, not to mention a clever writer. He's definitely a thought leader and influencer to follow.
"Market Madness" is an enjoyable and informative read.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Understand how oil world works
By Marc
After finishing the book I could trace some relevant parallels between what had happened in the past and the actual situation ... for me thats the most important thing I got from this book . The author clearly explains how the major oil crisis developed and how they evolved ... A very good read , I'm glad I bought this one .
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great Short History of Oil
By H. P.
Market Madness examines the flip side of irrational exuberance—“irrational anxiety.” It’s another version of a “new era economic thinking” that comes up every time oil prices are high. I.e., every time oil prices are high there is irrational anxiety that oil prices will continue to climb and the oil eventually run out. But high prices always correct by encouraging exploration and muting demand. The history of oil prices bears that theory out in practice, as Clayton ably shows.
Market Madness turns into a really great history of oil. Irrational anxiety around oil prices dates back at least to 1908. And oil has been intruding on foreign policy since at least 1914. Particularly interesting is an ill-fated plan for the federal government to get into the oil business during FDR’s administration. It was a solitary attempt and we have been much the better for its failure. Nixon did implement price controls, to which Clayton points in blame for the infamous gas lines.
Ultimately, Clayton’s argument against irrational anxiety is built on “[o]ne of the most powerfully counterintuitive and empirically conclusive findings in economic history[—]that the real prices of nearly all major resources have actually trended lower over very long periods of time, even if they are produced in greater volumes. Although nonrenewable commodity prices can rise steeply over years or even decades when supply and demand conditions warrant, over the centuries they have tended to stagnate or decline.” As prices rise, on the supply side producers find new proven reserves and extract oil previously economically infeasible; on the demand side consumers cut consumption and shift to more efficient alternatives.
Clayton ultimately comes up with at least three lessons: (1) “[n]ever underestimate the power of the market to wring abundance out of scarcity,” (2) “the oil trade is marked by disjunctures and discontinuity,” and (3) “[b]asic truths about how markets work . . . have proven astoundingly reliable.”
As an unfortunate matter of timing, Market Madness doesn’t address recent dip in prices.
Market Madness’ biggest weakness, though, is that it doesn’t address the other two concerns—geopolitical risk and environmental concerns. It’s clear from reading the reactions to rises in oil shortage that it’s not just about prices and peak oil.
Disclosure: I received a copy of Market Madness through NetGalley.
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